← Beginner's Luck HVN Season Store Championship
Water FractalTier 2
at Beginner's Luck HVN Season Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 21.4% | 5 | 0-2-3 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 42.5% | -4.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.1% | -13.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -4.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.1% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 62.3% | +9.2 |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.7 |
| Wind Allies | 3.6% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 67.5% | +13.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.5 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Staggering Strike, Unstable Fractal, Frostbind. Losers more often ran: Acquiescing Rejection, Frozen Dismissal, Chill to the Bone.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquiescing Rejection | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Torpid Fractal | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Extricating Touch | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostnip Pirouette | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Novice Healer | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Powercell | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Automated Gardener | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 |